By Wolf Blitzer, CNN

Mesa, Arizona (CNN) – Things appear to be moving in the right direction for President Obama and his re-election drive – at least a bit.

The unemployment rate has been steadily going down in recent months.

The Dow Jones is hovering around 13,000 – nearly double the 6,547 that existed in March 2009, shortly after he took office.

His job approval number, according to our latest CNN-ORC International Poll, is at 50%.

On top of this, the president beats each of the four GOP presidential finalists in hypothetical one-on-one matchups.

Despite those indicators, White House and Obama re-election campaign officials should be under no illusions. There is still a lot of time between now and the November election.

Where things stand in February certainly doesn’t indicate where they will be in November.

There are so many factors at play.

For one thing, we don’t know who the Republican nominee will be. It probably will be one of the four finalists, but not necessarily. This already has proven to be one wild and unpredictable race for the GOP nomination.

Most serious Democratic Party insiders fear Mitt Romney a lot more than they fear Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich or Ron Paul. They believe the former Massachusetts governor would be a very formidable opponent.

They believe they would have an easier time with Santorum. His outspoken views on social issues, they say, could alienate many moderate Republicans and independents, especially suburban women.

Then again, I have often heard Jimmy Carter aides recall that they were high-fiving each other in 1980 when they heard that Ronald Reagan would be the Republican nominee. How could an incumbent president, they thought, lose to a former Hollywood actor?

We all know how that story ended.

Follow Wolf Blitzer on Twitter: @WolfBLitzerCNN

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