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BLITZER’S BLOG: Syrian leader’s nervous eye on Libya
By CNN's Wolf Blitzer
(CNN) - If you’re watching Tripoli from Damascus and your name is Bashar al-Assad, you’re very nervous.
Only a few months ago, who would have thought that Moammar Gadhafi would go down this way? Then again, who would have thought that Hosni Mubarak would wind up in a hospital bed in a courtroom cage?
The Arab spring continues to unfold in dramatic ways.
What’s happening in Libya will certainly have an impact in Syria. The Syrian protesters will be emboldened to continue their struggle against the al-Assad regime. Al-Assad and his allies probably will be emboldened to become even more aggressive in trying to crush the opposition.
The key will be the Syrian military and security services. Will they remain blindly loyal to al-Assad’s regime, or will we start seeing cracks? I suspect that some senior military officers eventually will say no more killing and torturing of unarmed civilian demonstrators.
It’s at that point that al-Assad rule could really be endangered.
The Libyan rebels received enormous assistance from the NATO allies. The airstrikes pounded Gadhafi’s troops and military facilities. In the end, the no-fly zone worked.
It’s unlikely that NATO will launch a similar operation against al-Assad’s military. I don’t see any desire on the part of the U.S. and its NATO allies to ask the United Nations Security Council to impose a no-fly zone over Syria.
Still, al-Assad should not rest easy. What eventually could bring him down is what brought Mubarak down – namely, the will of an angry and frustrated people seeking freedom. In the end, that may be even more powerful than NATO airstrikes.
RELATED STORY: Syria looks over its shoulder
SEE ALSO: Live blog: Intense fighting near Gadhafi stronghold
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Post by: Filed under: Libya • Syria • Wolf Blitzer |
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All the best wishes for you guys. May Allaah help you in your sgugrtle for dignity and freedom.On a side note,the green band at the top of the Syrian flag should be light green,not deep green. The light green one is the standard type used by most opposition groups,including the Syrian National Council,Free Syrian Army and most demonstrators inside and outside Syria.So was the pre-Baath flag. I think this deep green version you have got from Wikipedia,and this is erroneous. Plz see to this.Was salam
Venezuela is going to be next after the midle east csene .the oil and minerals need to be secure for the usa market for next sixty years the control of energy products are importante fot security of the contry
Yes there should realize the opportunity to RSS commentary, quite simply, CMS is another on the blog.
We supported Assad and approved his inheritance of power from his brutal father. Remember Madeline Albright and her visit to Damascus to give blessing to this idiot to inherit presidency. So he is like an illegal child of ours. In an indirect way, we are responsible for the blood bath that is happening in Syria now na we have to stop it. If we become the freinds of that country, we gain 22 Million consumers of our goods whic may improve the economy here. Think about it.
Why are most of you calling these debacles in the middle east victories? lol
This is not our problem lybia was / is not our problem use our $$$ to fix our problems @ home. For all of you that want to give Obama credit for this "non war" "victory" if he gets credit for anything involing the "arab spring" ( wich ppl in his adm have claimed was on him )then he gets credit for our economy that he claims is worse because of the "arab spring" can't have your cake and eat it too. Though you can however have a Nobel peace prize and start wars and escalte other wars ! Thing that make you go hummmm !?
Ron paul 2012!!!!
Wolf, I'm getting sick and tired o this middle east stories...go to something different. Also, see where Gallop has Rick Perry over Romney by a large, large margin. Looks like CNN is leading from behind.
Wolf please do cover the events in Syria more. What is the matter with you people? Is the Syrian blood cheaper than the Libian or Tunisian? What are the american officials waiting for? The crimes commited in Syria are much more appoling than in Egypte or Libiya. I think That Basar is in race with Hitler and may then the world will do something.
layla, if we invade Syria, it will probably lead to opec shutting down all oil and will probably start an extremely hot and short lived war there. We should not even have gone into Libya, but we were talked into it. Best thing is for us to provide aid to syrians that are fighting against Assad. Then we can see what happens. Personally, I am hoping that Libyans will provide aid to the Syrian rebels and give them hope.
QUESTIONS; DO YOU THINK THAT THE USA HAVE THE SUFFICIENT BALLS TO INVADE CHINA.
PCDyou take Bush over America. You are an enemy of America.Get the hell out of our country, Bush freak.America would reiocje if Bush was removed from office, reiocje in the streets. You filthy, little piece of human excrement.you are all aloneon a hill, all aloneclutching Rove's RNC talking pointswaiting by the radio for Marc LevinYou are all alone PCDyour own country has rejected your failed ideologyYou are all alone defending Bush over AmericaAll alone craving endless wars, calling everybody terroristsYour own nation has rejected you, you dirty little freak
People of syria should take the laws into there hands and fight with the last blood in there vain J̲̥̅̊u̶̲̥̅̊s̶̲̥̅̊t̲̥̅̊ like the people of tunisia,egypt,yemen and the victorious people of lybia J̲̥̅̊u̶̲̥̅̊s̶̲̥̅̊t̲̥̅̊ did..
It's time the Middle East countries be allowed to determine their own destiny. As each dictator falls, the desire for freedom will get stronger. I personally hope we allow these new free countries to choose their own path, not the path we 'think' they should take. This is their time, they fought for freedom, and they desire to stumble and make mistakes as we did so long ago. I'm so please for the country and wish them the best.
You have to love how the Republicans refuse to admit that President Obama's approach to addressing the Libyan conflict was correct. Is really wish McCain would shut up if he does not have a constructive thing to say. I also hope the US will assist / facilitate the creation and development of Libyian's democracy through the UN and NATO and not push our form of democracy on Libyia.
McCain believes the US should have done more with sir support...who would foot the bill, would we close some tax loopholes, maybe trade corp. jets for military ones?
Hello Wolf, I enjoy your show.
I want to comment on about the scape of one of Gadafi's Son, Mohammed today. I wathced the interview you had done with the x-Ambasador. Based on his comment such as" He is one of least agressive" he is the oldest Gadafi son, from a diffrent wife." it seems the Ambasodor know more if you ask him more. He has a reason to say those red flag comments. he seems like he know something about it. it sound like they let him go because he is less agressive son, or they must sympatize with sons from diffrent wiffe. This is the begining of big mistrust of the rebel with Libian people and the world watching them. TNC need to give more explanation for this.
mohammed from Portland, OR
Sorry but Syria is no Libya because unlike Gaddafi, Bashar al-Assad has friends in both China and Russia who, like it or not are major forces in today's world. Assad needs to be completely isolated in order to step down.
Russia and China have both proved to give lip service to those Middle East and African dictators who abuse but have not lifted a finger to defend them. I doubt Syria will be any different. They will voice their opinion but will let the will of the people prevail. Syria will be on their own in the end.
Syria will fall next, for it is on the way to Iran. Syria will fall very fast for the military there never had anyone fight back. They will become cowards very fast. By December we are heading to Iran.
Dear Wolf:
Mohammed Gadhafi who scaped is the oldest son from his first wife. However, your news saying the youngest son. I lived in Libya in 2008 and 2009 in oil and gas business.....Thanks
Bashar is a thug, he will not survive the onslaught. He should cut a deal now instead of waiting for his cage.
All of ME despots and Israel must take note. Occupying people and deying them their freedom and rights will destroy you in the long run. Times up soon for Netanyahu and Saudi Royals.
Netanyahu is already facing growing demonstrations at home, and international criticism abroad. His heavy handed tactics have won him no friends. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, has made sure that his CITIZENS are well taken care of...oil money in your pocket kinda takes all of the revolution out of you...the real danger in Saudi Arabia is all of the non-citizens (migrant workers) who have been repressed, used and abused for years.
I, personally, am very excited to see Gadaffi go...hopefully the mob will find him and there will be no need for a trial! I hope Assad al-Bashir is worried...he SHOULD BE! So should the Ayatollah and President Ahmadinejad and any other dictator in the world!
THIS is why China and Russia are so upset and block the "Western Powers" every time they can...they are SCARED that the same kind of uprising will happen in THEIR countries! AND IT WILL!
Now is the time for freedom to reign on our planet. It may take another year, maybe two...but the age of the despot is passing, and the dictator's days are indeed numbered!
hmmm... wasn't "Palestine" occupied by Romans and then "Palestinians"? I'll remind you that the Dome of the Rock is built upon the Jewish Temple Mount, which by definition, was there first. The Romans forced exile upon the majority of the Jewish population of Israel, and it was then occupied by others. The Jews have come back to where they came from in the first place (and they aren't "Europeans" as many like to claim; genetics and haplogroup mapping now prove their link back to the Middle East.) So one can hardly call Israeli's "occupiers."
This is a great victory for the world. Qaddafi has lead an outlaw regime since the Lockerbie Bombing. I'm now glad that Bush lied about going to war in Iraq because it removed our leash and set a precident in which we can now burn these warts off of our collective face unrestrained. I hope we follow through on this and keep the Islamic crazies from taking overLibya. Bush and Obama will go down in history as having begun what I think will be shown to be a very positive change in terms of the world collectively not accepting oppression as an acceptable governing tool. It will lead to many great thing s in the future, I hope. I feel bad for those who's partisanship will not allow then to see how positive this is for the world. President Obama sure has my vote in 2012.
Why mention only Syria? Tehran is nervous too. The opposition has not evaporated, died, or migrated elsewhere. It is still organized also.
Death to Asad. Death to Ahmadinejad. Death to any supporter of the al-Asad regime. Filthy Ayatollah's and Mullahs need to keep their dictator noses out of Arab business; and take those filthy al-Asads with you. NATO/Turkey- please help the Syrian people. Syria will be a strong beacon of peace under a secular and democratic government. A predominantly Sunni Arab democratic Syrian government would take orders from Turkey and not those filthy Mullahs in Iran, and would stick a finger in the eyes of the "Ayatollah-Dogs" and would sever "Iran's Ayatollah-Regimes" right arm off in the region thereby preventing arms into Lebanon for Hezbollah to arm itself and cause trouble.
Wolf,
I'm an Obama supporter. But why would the President and the UN not do the same in Syria? The justification for NATO intervention in Libya was to prevent civilian deaths. I see civilians dying in Syria at the hands of the Syrian government. What's different?
Well, at the risk of sounding cynical, Syria doesn't have any oil.
Joe W-
The difference between Libya and Syria is that the Libyan people launched a viable military revolution, which the people of Syria have been unable to do. If a faction in Syria splits off and takes up arms against al-Assad, I'm sure they will get help.
The main difference is that Libya had a pathetic military, Syria does not. Enforcing a no fly zone in Syria would be hotly contested and would result in NATO casualties. NATO would prevail but not before losing a number of air craft. In Libya I believe only one aircraft was lost, in Syria you would probably lose a lot more. The cost of enforcing a no fly zone might outweigh the benefit. Also remember that Lybia is a major oil exporter (2.5% of world oil currently but has huge untapped potential) and Syria is not (0.5% of world market), meaning that the benefit to getting involved in Syria is less than it is in Lybia.
Oil.
Goodmorning libya, welcome to a new era of democracy! As for the tyrant and his children, let the rule of law prevail. Stop the bloodshed, i repeat stop it.
Bashar al-Assad and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad BOTH need to be removed from power by any means necessary.
Great commetn Mark. It is a volunteer Army. Lead from the front my friend. Just increase your life insurance first.
Thank you for all that great info you provide Alex and thank your team! No one can stop what is taknig place It is to late. One world government is here; coming to a town near all of us, around the world now being bring forth at the same time. World will be 10 districts soon. Policed by UN and TSA and NATO. War is on the verge of breaking out and not just in one country. Mass confusion then. MARSHALt LAW will be activated that is why we NOW have so many road blocks. Take a look around w
IRAN IS TRYING TO NUKE ISRAEL AND THE USA!!1 They are enriching uainrum to 20% which is beyond what they need for energy or medicine2 They continue to work on space missiles so they can make an ICBM to reach the USA3 They are ran by religious extremists4 Muslims believe that their reward for killing non believers is to go to heaven aka suicide bombers5 Most muslims hate the USA and Israel6 They burn US flag everyday in Tehran for last 30+ yearsNUKE IRAN BEFORE THEY NUKE THE USA
Yes we should definitely go in and kick out all these Arab dictators that murder their own citizens – but lets prioritize them by starting with the countries awash in oil. I mean after all. How dare they build their countries on top of OUR oil!! Besides we need a stabilized Libya (to maintain oil production) while we set our sites on the next REAL target – Iran. (Syria is chump change.)
FREE IRAN!!!!
Syria is next, its only a matter of time. The UN held a special session after they completed their visit to the country today. Mr. Assad, pack your bags, the revolution will be televised and the world will watch you fall with the help of the free world!
In the End, that IS more powerful than NATO Airstrikes.
SYRIA IT,S NOT like EYGPT or LYBIA, more than 80% off syrian want Bashar al-Assad and support his reform
No we dont!!!! We want him away and our freedom back!!!
yes, seeking freedom..but Blitzer would never say that about the Palestinians..
The people have spoken; the tyrants must go! These tyrants have made so that the young people of these countries have nothing to loose, so they will fight and die.
Stay strong and be brave, young soldiers! This is your Revolution...
The impact of the Arab Spring will have the greatest impact in Syria. Even greater then in Egypt or Libya. Syria has such a strong alliance with Iran and Hezbullah that the fall of the Syrian government (Assad) will create a huge problem for this alliance. Where will Hezbullah and Iran then go? No one else wants them in their country? It could bring war to Lebanon again if Hezbullah loses its Syrian bases and support. Iran will support Hezbullah but they will not allow them to roost in their country.
I hope Al-Assad is watching...he will be next to stand trial in The Hague International Criminal Court if he doesn't stop slaughtering civilians.
How do you see the role of Syria's patron Iran in all this? Will they sense he is a sink hole and cut their losses? Or will they try to save him as their anchor in the eastern Med (adjacent to Israel)?
Stop pushing for war, you warmonger. Assad has the support of a good number of Syrians, just Gaddafi had. Gaddafi has gone down only because the NATO collaborated with the rebels, not because of a no-fly zone. They're violated the resolution.
They should be - Would be just to see them hang together.
ooooOOOO.. I'm so scared!
Yo Bash-Brother remember when we said we'd be each other's safety? (I know we were drunk but we pinkie swore so it still counts). Anyway I know it's Hot there but it's Hotter here and I need a place to Land Chop Chop.
MoMo-K
Bashar, If that is really you. You should be very scared.
No one can stand the in the way of people.
Neither you, your brother, your mother or your Asef Shaukat will help you when time for judgement comes. The will all sell you like all the corrupted criminal in your government.
So true:
al-Assad should not rest easy. What eventually will bring him down is what brought Mubarak down – namely, the will of an angry and frustrated people seeking freedom. In the end, that may be even more powerful than NATO airstrikes.
juvenile news
We had a cowboy president who went around ranting and raving, attacking everything with gusto but never following through on anything. Now we have a quiet, peace loving president who takes out the trash and removes the riff-raff. If I were al-Assad I would be rethinking my position. First Osama and now Gadhafi, this american presedent is a doer, not a talker, Stay on his good side and there will be no trouble...
It's a pleasure to find such raitnoliaty in an answer. Welcome to the debate.
All in time, all in time and President Obama with NATO will bring him down, not a Republican who just wants to jump right in and go it alone. All in time, Mr. President.
I would not be so sure. unless Al-Assad starts to give money, jobs and free houses the people will not stop thinking if their life would be better without Al-Assad. But then again Al-Assad would not do such a thing – too stupid and stingy. Thats the hallmark of these tyrants – they want it all for themselves and their clan. As far as a rebel uprising in Syria as long as there is enough momentum to accomplish I think NATO will push to keep the momentum going. As with all human beings the troops and their commanders are not dumb sooner or later they will evaluate their positions in the new scheme of things. No ideology can win over living free usually. Defections will slowly and then swiftly pull the rug from Al-Assad feet...
I agree 100%: No ideology can win over living free usually. Defections will slowly and then swiftly pull the rug from Al-Assad feet...
This too, is not an American problem. Not an American bill. Good luck Syrians with Syria.
It is an American problem. We supported Assad and approved his inheritance of power from his brutal father. Remember Madeline Albright and her visit to Damascus to give eblessing to this idiot to inherit presidency. So he is like an illegal child of ours. In an indirect way. We are responsible for the blood bath that is happening in Syria now na we have to stop it. If we become the freinds of that country, we gain 22 Million consumers of our goods whic may improve the economy here. So is it our problem or not?
i am afraid that rnalpcieg baby assad will immediately result in U.S. pressure on Israel to withdraw from the golan and bring the foxes right up to the door of the chicken coup.best would be to weaken baby and slowly introduce the beginning of democratic reforms.Israel's political comic strip since 1973
Off with Assad's head. And then on to Iran.
why is syria nervous? they have Iran backing them. Obama wouldn't dare do anything but throw some more meaningless rhetoric at them.
A year or so ago CNN had an interview with "someone" who was with Gadahfi when he watched Sadam being pulled out of his hole, and he said "that could me". It would be a timely piece to air today. I don't remember who said it but today he's being pulled out of his hole.
Leave now Assad !!
Otherwise, you're next !!
.
al-Assad has been smart enough not to attack or threaten the US.
The US will only get involved militarily and spend billions of its citizens tax dollars if its security is threatened.
It is not.
Saddam -> Mubarak -> Gadhafi ->...............al Assad
It's time for the overthrow of the fascist regime in Syria!
You know what's funny.... the "Syrian people" you claim want freedom are all Iraqi refugees that have come over and want to bring their crap into Syria. The matter of the fact is, al-Assad is not nervous. He is very calm and collected in all his appearances, unlike the other leaders who have fallen. I suggest that the media do it's research before making claims. And in the cases where you can't, which this is the case, I suggest you don't make any claims to begin with.
I hope that Assad's government collapses soon. However, there is always that danger that the former dictators of the Arab world will eventually be replaced by even more brutal and medieval Islamic governments.
More will depend on what Egypt and Liba does down the road. If they go after ONLY the very top ppl, but let soldiers off, then many soldiers in Syria will think about letting al-Assad’s regime. OTH, if they go after ALL of them, well, then the soldiers in Syria (and elsewhere), really have no incentives to quit fighting.
Hopefully, both of these nations will do the right things, limit who they go after, and then help rebuild the nation with the soldiers that backed the dictators.
The difference between Syria and Libya is that NATO bombed Gaddafi's forces. Syria has the backing of Iran and Hezbullah. The US and it's allies do not want a regional war that could pit Sunni versus Shia versus Israel. They also don't want terrorist attacks all over Europe and in the US from Iran and Hezbullah. In other words, I don't think Assad is going anywhere. The most that will likely happen is that Syria splits in two.
The no fly zone worked. So will Obama FINALLY get credit for something? Naw, probably not.
Unfortunately freedom comes at a price. Even if these leaders are ousted or they leave on their own the people may be no better off. It depends on who gains control and what they do with it. Often times rebels incite the people to get exactly what they want. The people not realizing that their actions are nothing more then what the rebel puppeteers have orchestrated to get rid of a leader the rebels do not want so that they can be replaced with their own.
With few or no news reports it is hard to tell who is killing who. We only hear bits and pieces and have no way of verifying that they are factual. Meanwhile NATO dumps ordinance on Libya killing civilians as well as the military and destroying a country that will have to be rebuilt in order to restore any resemblance of a normal life and commerce. The money for rebuilding must come from somewhere and the real question is who is going to be left on the hook for it. What will this country look like when it is all said and done and will it be worth living in.
Tyrants whether they are Libyan or Syrian will fall sooner or later with the mood of the Middle East. Now Let's add Iran next!
It couldn't happen to a better bunch of creaps.Do to them what they have done to their own countrymen and women and children. Thanks Jim Thomas Phx.Az.